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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.