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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|